Premier League · 4 May · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
1–3
Nottingham Forest
Recap
Sources complete · 2 of 2 models
Sources complete · 2 of 2 models
01
Modelled xG 2.15-2.05 against a 1-3 scoreline.
02
Shots 21-6, in the box 12-6.
03
Pressure Index minutes: CHE 77' · NOT 35' of 113.
What the models saw→
Goals against expected, both sides
Chelsea
0123 xG
SMSportmonks2.60
AFAPI-Football2.15
Nottingham Forest
0123 xG
AFAPI-Football2.05
SMSportmonks2.02
Goals scoredEach model's xGInside the noise floor
Each provider runs its own shot model over the same shots. They weight chance quality differently, so they disagree. Gaps under 0.3 xG are noise.
Models that reported put Chelsea in a 0.45 xG band. A normal week's disagreement.
2 of 2 models complete. Values sit side by side. They are not averaged. How we handle this
Who had the match→
Pressure Index by minute · not PPDA · CHE 77' · NOT 35' of 113
2' Awoniyi
15' Jesus
52' Awoniyi
90' Pedro
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Even
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Above the line: Chelsea doing moreBelow the line: Nottingham Forest doing moreCircle: goal · ring: miss · bar: card · diamond: subFilled: Chelsea · outlined: Nottingham Forest
Peak Pressure Index at 47'. CHE 77' · NOT 35' of 113
Who made the match→
15 players · measured against their own per-90 baselines
Decisive
João PedroF · 90'
7.9
rating
90
minutes
1
key pass
1 goal, 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 key pass
Unseen work
Moisés CaicedoM · 90'
7.0
rating
90
minutes
90 minutes
Off the pace
Cole PalmerM · 90'
5.9
rating
90
minutes
1
key pass
3 shots, 2 on target, 1 key pass
Player
Min
Signal
Player
Min
1 goal, 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 key pass
Andrey Santos
32
32 minutes
Andrey Santos
32
32 minutes
Jesse Derry
44
2 shots, 1 on target
Jesse Derry
44
2 shots, 1 on target
Marc Cucurella
90
1 assist, 1 shot, 3 key passes
Marc Cucurella
90
1 assist, 1 shot, 3 key passes
Nottingham Forest
Player
Min
Signal
Player
Min
Taiwo Awoniyi
90
2 goals, 2 shots, 2 on target
Taiwo Awoniyi
90
2 goals, 2 shots, 2 on target
Matz Sels
90
4 saves
Matz Sels
90
4 saves
Dilane Bakwa
80
1 assist, 2 key passes
Dilane Bakwa
80
1 assist, 2 key passes
Morgan Gibbs-White
21
1 assist, 1 key pass
Morgan Gibbs-White
21
1 assist, 1 key pass
Jair
45
45 minutes
Jair
45
45 minutes
Elliot Anderson
45
1 key pass
Elliot Anderson
45
1 key pass
Nicolás Domínguez
45
45 minutes
Nicolás Domínguez
45
45 minutes
Chris Wood
24
24 minutes
Chris Wood
24
24 minutes
Igor Jesus
45
1 goal, 2 shots, 2 on target
Igor Jesus
45
1 goal, 2 shots, 2 on target
Ryan Yates
90
90 minutes
Ryan Yates
90
90 minutes
Luca Netz
90
90 minutes
Luca Netz
90
90 minutes
Nikola Milenković
45
45 minutes
Nikola Milenković
45
45 minutes
Morato
90
90 minutes
Morato
90
90 minutes
Neco Williams
46
46 minutes
Neco Williams
46
46 minutes
Zach Abbott
44
44 minutes
Zach Abbott
44
44 minutes
James McAtee
90
1 shot, 1 key pass
James McAtee
90
1 shot, 1 key pass
Omari Hutchinson
10
10 minutes
Omari Hutchinson
10
10 minutes
Stefan Ortega
0
0 minutes
Stefan Ortega
0
0 minutes
Eric da Silva Moreira
0
0 minutes
Eric da Silva Moreira
0
0 minutes
Lorenzo Lucca
0
0 minutes
Lorenzo Lucca
0
0 minutes
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