Premier League · 18 Oct · City Ground
Chelsea
3–0
Nottingham Forest
Recap
Sources complete · 2 of 2 models
Sources complete · 2 of 2 models
01
Modelled xG 1.67-2.35 against a 3-0 scoreline.
02
Shots 17-12, in the box 11-8.
03
Pressure Index minutes: CHE 56' · NOT 36' of 92.
What the models saw→
Goals against expected, both sides
Chelsea
0123 xG
SMSportmonks1.50
AFAPI-Football1.67
Nottingham Forest
0123 xG
AFAPI-Football2.35
SMSportmonks1.78
Goals scoredEach model's xGInside the noise floor
Each provider runs its own shot model over the same shots. They weight chance quality differently, so they disagree. Gaps under 0.3 xG are noise.
Models that reported put Chelsea in a 0.17 xG band. Inside the noise floor. They agree.
2 of 2 models complete. Values sit side by side. They are not averaged. How we handle this
Who had the match→
Pressure Index by minute · not PPDA · CHE 56' · NOT 36' of 92
49' Acheampong
52' Neto
84' James
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Even
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Above the line: Chelsea doing moreBelow the line: Nottingham Forest doing moreCircle: goal · ring: miss · bar: card · diamond: subFilled: Chelsea · outlined: Nottingham Forest
Peak Pressure Index at 51'. CHE 56' · NOT 36' of 92
Who made the match→
16 players · measured against their own per-90 baselines
Decisive
Pedro NetoM · 78'
9.3
rating
78
minutes
4
key passes
1 goal, 1 assist, 3 shots, 2 on target, 4 key passes
Unseen work
Roméo LaviaM · 45'
6.9
rating
45
minutes
45 minutes
Off the pace
Marc GuiuF · 45'
5.9
rating
45
minutes
2
shots
2 shots
Player
Min
Signal
Player
Min
1 goal, 1 assist, 3 shots, 2 on target, 4 key passes
1 goal, 1 assist, 2 shots, 2 on target, 2 key passes
Marc Cucurella
90
1 key pass
Marc Cucurella
90
1 key pass
Alejandro Garnacho
45
45 minutes
Alejandro Garnacho
45
45 minutes
Andrey Santos
45
2 shots
Andrey Santos
45
2 shots
Facundo Buonanotte
0
0 minutes
Facundo Buonanotte
0
0 minutes
Tyrique George
0
0 minutes
Tyrique George
0
0 minutes
Nottingham Forest
Player
Min
Signal
Player
Min
Callum Hudson-Odoi
37
2 key passes
Callum Hudson-Odoi
37
2 key passes
Ibrahim Sangaré
90
2 shots, 1 on target, 1 key pass
Ibrahim Sangaré
90
2 shots, 1 on target, 1 key pass
Douglas Luiz
53
1 key pass
Douglas Luiz
53
1 key pass
Chris Wood
16
16 minutes
Chris Wood
16
16 minutes
Morato
90
90 minutes
Morato
90
90 minutes
Elliot Anderson
90
2 key passes
Elliot Anderson
90
2 key passes
Taiwo Awoniyi
45
1 shot, 1 key pass
Taiwo Awoniyi
45
1 shot, 1 key pass
Oleksandr Zinchenko
74
1 key pass
Oleksandr Zinchenko
74
1 key pass
Murillo
74
74 minutes
Murillo
74
74 minutes
Nicolò Savona
16
16 minutes
Nicolò Savona
16
16 minutes
Nikola Milenković
90
3 shots, 1 on target
Nikola Milenković
90
3 shots, 1 on target
Igor Jesus
45
1 shot
Igor Jesus
45
1 shot
Neco Williams
90
1 shot
Neco Williams
90
1 shot
Morgan Gibbs-White
90
2 shots, 1 key pass
Morgan Gibbs-White
90
2 shots, 1 key pass
Matz Sels
90
3 saves
Matz Sels
90
3 saves
John Victor
0
0 minutes
John Victor
0
0 minutes
Jair
0
0 minutes
Jair
0
0 minutes
Dan Ndoye
0
0 minutes
Dan Ndoye
0
0 minutes
Nicolás Domínguez
0
0 minutes
Nicolás Domínguez
0
0 minutes
Ryan Yates
0
0 minutes
Ryan Yates
0
0 minutes
Got a take on that one?
I check it against the numbers and show the working.
ConvictionConfident
Coming soon
The take tester is being rebuilt.