Premier League · 4 Mar · Villa Park
Chelsea
4–1
Aston Villa
Recap
Sources complete · 2 of 2 models
Sources complete · 2 of 2 models
01
Modelled xG 3.60-0.78 against a 4-1 scoreline.
02
Shots 15-9, in the box 14-6.
03
Pressure Index minutes: CHE 67' · AST 37' of 104.
What the models saw→
Goals against expected, both sides
Chelsea
01234 xG
SMSportmonks3.03
AFAPI-Football3.60
Aston Villa
0123 xG
AFAPI-Football0.78
SMSportmonks1.05
Goals scoredEach model's xGInside the noise floor
Each provider runs its own shot model over the same shots. They weight chance quality differently, so they disagree. Gaps under 0.3 xG are noise.
Models that reported put Chelsea in a 0.57 xG band. A normal week's disagreement.
2 of 2 models complete. Values sit side by side. They are not averaged. How we handle this
Who had the match→
Pressure Index by minute · not PPDA · CHE 67' · AST 37' of 104
2' Luiz
35' Pedro
45' Pedro
55' Palmer
64' Pedro
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Even
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Above the line: Chelsea doing moreBelow the line: Aston Villa doing moreCircle: goal · ring: miss · bar: card · diamond: subFilled: Chelsea · outlined: Aston Villa
Peak Pressure Index at 52'. CHE 67' · AST 37' of 104
Who made the match→
16 players · measured against their own per-90 baselines
Decisive
João PedroF · 85'
9.6
rating
85
minutes
1
key pass
3 goals, 1 assist, 5 shots, 4 on target, 1 key pass
Unseen work
Malo GustoD · 75'
7.3
rating
75
minutes
1
key pass
1 assist, 1 key pass
Off the pace
Wesley FofanaD · 79'
6.2
rating
79
minutes
1
shot
1 shot
Player
Min
Signal
Player
Min
3 goals, 1 assist, 5 shots, 4 on target, 1 key pass
1 goal, 2 shots, 2 on target, 3 key passes
Alejandro Garnacho
90
1 assist, 1 shot, 1 on target, 6 key passes
Alejandro Garnacho
90
1 assist, 1 shot, 1 on target, 6 key passes
1 assist, 1 shot, 1 on target, 3 key passes
Marc Cucurella
11
1 key pass
Marc Cucurella
11
1 key pass
Andrey Santos
12
12 minutes
Andrey Santos
12
12 minutes
Aston Villa
Player
Min
Signal
Player
Min
Douglas Luiz
63
1 goal, 1 shot, 1 on target
Douglas Luiz
63
1 goal, 1 shot, 1 on target
Ross Barkley
27
1 key pass
Ross Barkley
27
1 key pass
Emiliano Buendía
63
1 key pass
Emiliano Buendía
63
1 key pass
Leon Bailey
63
1 assist, 1 key pass
Leon Bailey
63
1 assist, 1 key pass
Jadon Sancho
27
2 key passes
Jadon Sancho
27
2 key passes
Ollie Watkins
71
2 shots, 2 on target
Ollie Watkins
71
2 shots, 2 on target
Amadou Onana
90
90 minutes
Amadou Onana
90
90 minutes
Tammy Abraham
19
1 shot
Tammy Abraham
19
1 shot
Emiliano Martínez
90
1 key pass, 4 saves
Emiliano Martínez
90
1 key pass, 4 saves
Tyrone Mings
90
90 minutes
Tyrone Mings
90
90 minutes
Alysson
27
1 shot
Alysson
27
1 shot
Ezri Konsa
90
90 minutes
Ezri Konsa
90
90 minutes
Lamare Bogarde
45
45 minutes
Lamare Bogarde
45
45 minutes
Morgan Rogers
90
3 shots, 1 on target
Morgan Rogers
90
3 shots, 1 on target
Ian Maatsen
90
1 key pass
Ian Maatsen
90
1 key pass
Matty Cash
45
45 minutes
Matty Cash
45
45 minutes
Marco Bizot
0
0 minutes
Marco Bizot
0
0 minutes
Pau Torres
0
0 minutes
Pau Torres
0
0 minutes
Victor Lindelöf
0
0 minutes
Victor Lindelöf
0
0 minutes
Lucas Digne
0
0 minutes
Lucas Digne
0
0 minutes
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