MLS · 13 May · Sporting Park
LA Galaxy
1–3
Sporting Kansas City
Recap
Sources complete · 3 of 3 models
01
Modelled xG 1.14-2.05 against a 1-3 scoreline.
02
Shots 18-15, in the box 11-11.
03
Pressure Index minutes: LA 56' · SKC 42' of 99.

What the models saw→

Goals against expected, both sides

LA Galaxy
0123 xG
SMSportmonks0.81
AFAPI-Football1.14
ASAAmerican Soccer Analysis1.62
Sporting Kansas City
0123 xG
AFAPI-Football2.05
ASAAmerican Soccer Analysis2.52
SMSportmonks1.34
Goals scoredEach model's xGInside the noise floor

Each provider runs its own shot model over the same shots. They weight chance quality differently, so they disagree. Gaps under 0.3 xG are noise.

Models that reported put LA Galaxy in a 0.81 xG band. A wide spread. The models are reading the chances differently.

3 of 3 models complete. Values sit side by side. They are not averaged. How we handle this

Who had the match→

Pressure Index by minute · not PPDA · LA 56' · SKC 42' of 99

32' Capita
45' Joveljic
70' Harris
89' Pec
LA Galaxy
Sporting Kansas City
Even
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Above the line: LA Galaxy doing moreBelow the line: Sporting Kansas City doing moreCircle: goal · ring: miss · bar: card · diamond: subFilled: LA Galaxy · outlined: Sporting Kansas City

Peak Pressure Index at 65'. LA 56' · SKC 42' of 99

Who made the match→

16 players · measured against their own per-90 baselines

Decisive
Joseph Paintsil
F · 90'
8.2
rating
90
minutes
2
key passes

1 shot, 1 on target, 2 key passes

Unseen work
JT Marcinkowski
G · 90'
7.5
rating
90
minutes
4
saves

4 saves

Off the pace
Marco Reus
M · 77'
5.7
rating
77
minutes
1
key pass

1 shot, 1 key pass

Component ratings out of ten. An average night is 6.5. Above is better than that player's own baseline, below is worse. Ratings need 300 minutes of history.

Player
Min
Att→
Cre→
Pass→
Def→
Edwin Cerrillo
90
5.7
7.8
7.2
6.5
4 tackles and interceptions
Gabriel Pec
90
7.7
6.6
5.7
7.2
1 goal, 3 key passes
Jakob Glesnes
90
7.2
6.9
7.0
7.5
90 minutes
John Nelson
90
6.8
7.0
4.7
8.2
4 tackles and interceptions
Joseph Paintsil
90
5.7
6.7
7.3
6.2
90 minutes
JT Marcinkowski
90
–
–
7.6
5.4
4 saves
Marco Reus
77
5.1
5.2
5.4
7.8
77 minutes
Lucas Sanabria
65
5.3
5.4
7.9
5.8
65 minutes
Carlos Garcés
64
6.3
5.2
6.3
8.0
8 tackles and interceptions
Mauricio Cuevas
64
8.5
6.5
7.7
8.4
2 on target, 4 tackles and interceptions
Harbor Miller
45
5.9
6.6
8.3
6.2
45 minutes
Elijah Wynder
45
7.7
8.5
7.2
5.7
3 key passes
Justin Haak
26
7.7
8.5
5.2
7.3
1 assist
Miki Yamane
26
5.9
5.0
8.4
7.0
26 minutes
Erik Thommy
25
8.4
7.7
6.4
8.1
2 on target
Matheus Nascimento
13
–
–
–
–
13 minutes
Sporting Kansas City
Player
Min
Att→
Cre→
Pass→
Def→
Calvin Harris
90
8.5
8.5
7.5
5.1
1 goal, 2 assists
Ian James
90
6.1
5.6
5.0
6.0
90 minutes
Jayden Reid
90
8.0
6.3
5.2
6.1
4 tackles and interceptions
Lasse Berg Johnsen
90
6.0
8.2
7.2
6.1
3 key passes
Stefan Cleveland
90
–
–
4.7
7.7
6 saves
Wyatt Meyer
90
6.3
6.3
5.6
6.1
4 tackles and interceptions
Dejan Joveljić
89
7.9
7.4
5.2
6.1
1 goal, 2 on target
Jacob Davis
81
6.7
7.4
7.9
6.4
81 minutes
Taylor Calheira
62
–
–
–
–
62 minutes
Zorhan Bassong
61
6.0
7.8
5.6
7.8
6 tackles and interceptions
Capita
45
8.5
5.3
4.5
7.6
1 goal
Stephen Afrifa
45
5.2
5.5
8.0
5.5
45 minutes
Jacob Bartlett
29
7.0
6.4
8.1
7.0
29 minutes
Manu García
28
5.4
8.5
5.5
5.2
1 assist, 3 key passes
Justin Reynolds
9
–
–
–
–
9 minutes
Shapi Suleymanov
1
–
–
–
–
1 minutes

What it changes

Season to date
−4.6
Points vs expected points
Western Conference · 20 played
13th
Conference rank
Season xG 6.3 · goals 4
−2.3
Paintsil · goals over expected

Got a take on that one?

I check it against the numbers and show the working.

ConvictionConfident

Coming soon

The take tester is being rebuilt.