MLS · 7 Mar · Dick's Sporting Goods Park
LA Galaxy
1–4
Colorado Rapids
Recap
Sources complete · 3 of 3 models
01
Modelled xG 1.09-1.88 against a 1-4 scoreline.
02
Shots 15-10, in the box 9-8.
03
Pressure Index minutes: LA 42' · COL 58' of 102.

What the models saw→

Goals against expected, both sides

LA Galaxy
0123 xG
SMSportmonks0.80
AFAPI-Football1.09
ASAAmerican Soccer Analysis1.45
Colorado Rapids
01234 xG
AFAPI-Football1.88
ASAAmerican Soccer Analysis2.28
SMSportmonks1.69
Goals scoredEach model's xGInside the noise floor

Each provider runs its own shot model over the same shots. They weight chance quality differently, so they disagree. Gaps under 0.3 xG are noise.

Models that reported put LA Galaxy in a 0.65 xG band. A wide spread. The models are reading the chances differently.

3 of 3 models complete. Values sit side by side. They are not averaged. How we handle this

Who had the match→

Pressure Index by minute · not PPDA · LA 42' · COL 58' of 102

23' Yapi
56' Klauss
76' Manyoma
85' Navarro
89' Navarro
LA Galaxy
Colorado Rapids
Even
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Above the line: LA Galaxy doing moreBelow the line: Colorado Rapids doing moreCircle: goal · ring: miss · bar: card · diamond: subFilled: LA Galaxy · outlined: Colorado Rapids

Peak Pressure Index at 61'. LA 42' · COL 58' of 102

Who made the match→

16 players · measured against their own per-90 baselines

Decisive
João Klauss
F · 71'
7.3
rating
71
minutes
3
shots

1 goal, 3 shots, 2 on target

Unseen work
Edwin Cerrillo
M · 90'
6.7
rating
90
minutes
1
key pass

1 key pass

Off the pace
Novak Mićović
G · 90'
5.9
rating
90
minutes
2
saves

2 saves

Component ratings out of ten. An average night is 6.5. Above is better than that player's own baseline, below is worse. Ratings need 300 minutes of history.

Player
Min
Att→
Cre→
Pass→
Def→
Edwin Cerrillo
90
5.9
6.7
6.2
6.8
90 minutes
Elijah Wynder
90
6.0
8.0
7.3
7.2
90 minutes
Jakob Glesnes
90
6.0
6.3
6.2
4.7
90 minutes
Maya Yoshida
90
6.9
6.4
6.7
6.9
90 minutes
Novak Mićović
90
–
–
7.5
5.9
2 saves
Julián Aude
81
6.6
6.1
5.3
6.7
81 minutes
Miki Yamane
81
7.9
5.0
5.6
8.3
6 tackles and interceptions
João Klauss
71
7.1
5.3
4.6
5.5
1 goal, 2 on target
Marco Reus
71
5.0
6.3
5.3
7.8
4 key passes
Gabriel Pec
59
7.1
8.4
7.7
7.9
1 assist, 3 on target
Joseph Paintsil
50
5.1
5.0
6.3
7.2
50 minutes
Mauricio Cuevas
40
5.6
5.7
5.2
4.8
40 minutes
Erik Thommy
19
5.0
8.1
8.3
8.4
19 minutes
Matheus Nascimento
19
–
–
–
–
19 minutes
John Nelson
9
–
–
–
–
9 minutes
Lucas Sanabria
9
–
–
–
–
9 minutes
Colorado Rapids
Player
Min
Att→
Cre→
Pass→
Def→
Darren Yapi
90
8.0
8.4
7.2
7.1
1 goal, 1 assist
Jackson Travis
90
6.2
6.8
8.0
5.0
90 minutes
Lucas Herrington
90
6.0
5.8
7.1
5.9
90 minutes
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen
90
–
–
6.2
7.4
5 saves
Paxten Aaronson
90
5.1
8.3
6.5
6.5
1 assist, 4 key passes
Rafael Navarro
90
8.3
5.0
7.7
8.2
2 goals, 3 on target
Rob Holding
90
6.1
6.0
7.2
5.2
90 minutes
Reggie Cannon
65
6.7
5.9
7.3
6.8
65 minutes
Dante Sealy
58
5.4
5.0
6.0
4.7
58 minutes
Hamzat Ojediran
58
5.4
7.9
5.6
4.8
58 minutes
Josh Atencio
58
5.5
5.6
7.2
5.0
58 minutes
Theodore Ku-DiPietro
32
–
–
–
–
32 minutes
Wayne Frederick
32
5.1
8.5
6.5
5.0
1 assist
Keegan Rosenberry
25
8.5
5.3
8.4
4.9
25 minutes
Alexis Manyoma
22
–
–
–
–
1 goal
Connor Ronan
10
–
–
–
–
10 minutes

What it changes

Season to date
−4.6
Points vs expected points
Western Conference · 20 played
13th
Conference rank
Season xG 6.3 · goals 4
−2.3
Paintsil · goals over expected

Got a take on that one?

I check it against the numbers and show the working.

ConvictionConfident

Coming soon

The take tester is being rebuilt.