Brasileirão · 16 Aug
Flamengo
vs
Mirassol
Preview
Projected xG 1.31 – 0.97
01
Flamengo scoring 7.2 goals above their chances
02
14% of Mirassol's goal involvement cannot be picked
03
3 Mirassol player(s) one booking from a ban
The call

Once you price in who's missing and the venue, Flamengo look the stronger side on the season so far.

Availability-adjusted projected xG 0.97-1.31: Flamengo the better side once absences are priced in.

1.31 – 0.97
projected xG

Where these two are, going in

xG created and conceded per match · last six · tick at league average 1.19 · bar capped at 2.20

Flamengo · Created1.33
Flamengo · Conceded0.79
Mirassol · Created1.01
Mirassol · Conceded0.94
xG, last sixLeague average

Flamengo have the better net xG picture coming in, creating more and conceding less than Mirassol over the last six matches.

When this side turns it on

Mean Pressure Index through the ninety, last 6 mapped matches · not PPDA

Flamengo peak · 60'–70'
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
More pressure
Flamengo against Mirassol
Flamengo

Not enough mapped matches yet to profile when this side presses hardest.

Who's rising, who's fading

Last five matches against the five before them

−1.1
−0.9
−0.4
+0.4
+0.3
The spark shows every match rating in the run. The dashed line splits the two halves being compared.

Ayrton Lucas has risen fastest, swing +1.0. Luiz Araújo has fallen furthest, swing −1.1.

Personnel

Out and doubtful

Mirassol
Out
Carlos Eduardo

not in the current squad

Nathan Fogaça

not in the current squad

Gabriel Pires

not in the current squad

14% of goal involvement unavailable

Rest, travel and stakes

Fixture context · standings

Days of rest
Matches in 21 days: 3 v 3
6 v 7
Mirassol edge
A win would go 22 clear
2nd v 15th
42 v 23 pts

Call it before kickoff

I check it against the numbers and show the working.

ConvictionVery confident

Coming soon

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